Drew Montag

15 August 2011

Yeah, it’s me, the “basketball guy”, back for more.  It’s time for my annual attempt to predict how the University of Michigan’s football season is going to go.

I’ve been quite good at it for the last 3 seasons, during the ill-fated Rodriguez Era.  I correctly predicted 11 of the 12 results last season, all except the opening UConn win.  Many people haven’t liked my predictions, but they’re just predictions, not what I want to happen.  I would love for UM to go 13-0 every season, but that’s not the way it looks, yet.  I’m expecting the offense to be slightly less productive than last season, and the defense to be significantly less embarrassing.  Special teams?  Who knows…

Here are my predictions for the 2011 season:

That should be good enough for 3^rd place in the Legends division of the Big Ten, and a good New Year’s Day bowl game.

It’s possible that UM might beat MSU or Iowa, but I doubt it.

It’s also possible that UM could lose to Ohio State, but I think we’re due.  They could also lose the Notre Dame game, but that seems less likely.

Season Wrap-up

There’s so much to say about this season’s Michigan men’s basketball team, but the three biggest things are:

·         They were fun to watch.

·         They greatly exceeded all expectations.

·         They came SO close to “shocking the world”.

At the beginning of the season, no one was predicting that Michigan would finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings and go to the NCAA Tournament, but that’s what they did.  Most “experts” (including me) predicted that UM would finish near the bottom of the Big Ten (10^th place being the most common prediction), and that they would be lucky to sneak into the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).  The team was just too young and inexperienced, and they had lost too much (54%) of their scoring from last season’s team, which wasn’t very good to start with.  They had no seniors, only two juniors that played regularly, and a bunch of sophomores and freshmen.  They had very little height, and the few tall players on the team had never played a minute in a college game.  It looked like a big-time “rebuilding year”.

And yet…

·         The two juniors provided good, solid leadership, both on and off the court.

·         Two of the sophomores displayed good to great improvement over their freshman seasons.

·         The freshmen played (for the most part) with poise and skill beyond their years.

·         The scoring was there, and it was balanced for a change.

·         The (not so) big guys played bigger than their height.

Let’s look at each of these factors:

The Juniors - Stu Douglass and Zack Novak led by example this season.  They both played hard, and they did a great job of keeping the young players focused on and off the court.  They also both had a few big scoring games, especially Novak, who found his 3-point stroke again after a shaky sophomore season.

The Sophomores – Only two of the sophomores on this season’s team played much as freshmen, and they both improved from last season.  One of them, Matt Vogrich, showed solid improvement over his freshman campaign, but the other, Darius Morris, was certainly the most improved player on the team, probably in the whole Big Ten, and one of the most improved players in the country.

The Freshmen – Between true freshmen (4) and redshirt freshmen (2), there were a lot of new faces this season.  It’s always a crapshoot with freshmen; they can look great in high school, playing against other high school kids, but when they start playing against college seniors in the Big Ten, they can look like boys out there.  Fortunately, Michigan managed to get a few freshmen who (eventually) played like seasoned veterans.  It just took a while.  See “Bad Losses” (below) for more details on the string of games where the young players (especially the freshmen) panicked at key moments, and turned a tight game into a runaway loss.  When they played with poise, they were very good.  When they panicked, they were a liability.  As the season went on, they got better at keeping their poise.

The Scoring - Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were very good players, and I loved watching them play here, but when they were in the lineup there wasn’t a lot of scoring balance.  Opposing teams knew that if they could shut down even one of them, Michigan would struggle.  Not so this season.  Michigan often had 3 or 4 players score in double figures, and it wasn’t always the same players.  That made it hard for opposing teams to prepare for playing Michigan, and it made it hard to adjust to playing Michigan during the game.  If they put their best defender on whoever was doing most of the UM scoring, someone else would step up.

The Big Guys – That should be “The Not-So-Big Guys”.  Michigan just didn’t have much height this season.  They often started 4 guards and a forward (listed as a center).  The tallest player on the team is (redshirt) freshman Blake McLimans, at 6’10”, but he’s not a “power” player, he’s a “finesse” player.  He’s much more comfortable floating around near the 3-point line than banging underneath, with his back to the basket.  There are two players who are 6’9” tall: freshman Jon Horford and freshman Evan Smotrycz.  Horford is a true center, but he’s also a “project”.  He doesn’t have a complete game yet, and he only played sparingly once the Big Ten season started.  Smotrycz can play either “power” or “finesse”, but he’s more comfortable playing “finesse”.  He was called on often this season to spell Michigan’s starting center, Jordan Morgan, when he needed a rest or got in foul trouble.  Morgan is Michigan’s best true center, but he’s also the shortest, at 6’8”.  On most teams, he would be a forward, but on Michigan’s team, he was the starting center.  Michigan consistently lost the rebounding battle in almost every game, often by double digits, yet they won more games than they lost.  So, how did they do it, with no real “power” height?  They played good team defense, and everybody rebounded, not just the big guys.  The leading rebounder on the team was Zack Novak, a 6’4” (really 6’2”) guard who was often used as an undersized forward, guarding players 6-8 inches taller.  They hustled, they scrapped, and they did whatever they had to do to neutralize the other team’s height advantage.  And it worked.

Good/Bad Wins/Losses

I say this every season: I know that (in theory) every win is a good win, and every loss is a bad loss, but in practice, there are bad wins and good losses.  I also know that Michigan takes great pride in not believing in “moral victories”, but they’re real too.  Let’s look at the good and bad wins and losses:

Good Wins - There were several “good wins” this season:

·         11/30/2010 – At Clemson (69-61).  This was Michigan’s first true road game, after a couple neutral site games in the Legends Classic, and it was a very big, very impressive win against a team that made the NCAA Tournament.  It also helped the Big Ten win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge again.

·         12/04/2010 – Home vs. Harvard (65-62).  At the time, this win didn’t look very impressive, but Harvard went on to have a very good season, and was a buzzer-beater by Princeton away from getting into the NCAA Tournament.  It was also nice to beat former UM coach Tommy Amaker, who is doing a great job at Harvard.

·         12/10/2010 – Home vs. Utah (75-64).  At the time, this win looked bigger than it did by the end of the season, but Utah is a quality team with 3 players 7 feet tall or taller, and Michigan handled them convincingly.  This was the game where UM showed how they could handle a taller team.

·         12/18/2010 – Home vs. Oakland (69-51).  Oakland made it to the NCAA Tournament, and almost upset #5 seed Texas.  During the regular season, they beat Tennessee (Michigan’s first opponent in the NCAA Tournament) on the road, and lost to Michigan State by one point at a neutral site.  This was an important win, by a convincing margin.

·         02/02/2011 – Home vs. Penn State (76-69).  Once again, at the time, this didn’t look like a very impressive win, but PSU went on to beat some good Big Ten teams, tie for 4^th place in the Big Ten, make it to the Big Ten Championship game, and make it to the NCAA Tournament.

·         01/27/2011 – At (#25) Michigan State (61-57).  This was probably the biggest win of the season.  It stopped a 6-game losing streak, and it started an 8-3 finish to the regular season.  It also snapped a 13-year losing streak in Breslin, and made it possible for Michigan to sweep MSU.

·         02/06/2011 – At Penn State (65-62).  Another road win, in a season where road wins were tough to come by for most of the Big Ten teams.  At this point in the season, people were realizing that Penn State was for real, so sweeping them was a Big Deal.

·         02/26/2011 – At Minnesota (70-63).  Yet another road win, in a very tough place to play.  At the time, it wasn’t apparent that Minnesota had completely fallen apart in the 2^nd half of the Big Ten season.

·         03/05/2011 – Home vs. Michigan State (70-63).  Even though the road win vs. MSU was probably bigger/more important, this one was the most fun, since we got to see it in person.  It was fabulous to sweep the Spartans.

·         03/11/2011 – Big Ten Tournament vs. Illinois (60-55).  Here’s another NCAA Tournament team that Michigan beat.  This win also avenged an earlier close loss at Illinois.

·         03/18/2011 – NCAA Tournament vs. Tennessee (75-45).  It’s always a big deal when you win an NCAA Tournament game.  Winning by 30 points is just a bonus.

Bad Wins – There was only one “bad win” this season:

·         12/06/2010 – Home vs. Concordia (86-65).  Looking at the final score, you would never know that this was a tense game for the first 30 minutes.  The Concordia center ran wild, and no one from UM could slow him down.  It was scary to watch.

Good Losses – There were several “good losses” this season.  Michigan played several teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at the time, and they played them tough.  They just couldn’t quite beat them:

·         11/26/2010 – Legends Classic vs. (#9) Syracuse (53-50).  This was Michigan’s first loss of the season, and the first indication that they were good enough to play with the big boys.

·         01/09/2011 – Home vs. (#3) Kansas (67-60, overtime).  UM hung with them the whole game, and had a decent chance to win it in regulation.

·         01/12/2011 – Home vs. (#2) Ohio State (68-64).  This was the very next game after the Kansas game, and once again, UM hung in there the whole game.  OSU picked it up a notch in the last 2 minutes to win, but it could have gone either way.

·         02/03/2011 – At (#1) Ohio State (62-53).  This game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  Michigan hung with them for most of the game, and just couldn’t pull it out at the end.

·         02/16/2011 – At Illinois (54-52).  This was another game that was decided in the final seconds.

·         02/23/2011 – Home vs. (#12) Wisconsin (53-52).  Michigan should have won this game.  Wisconsin banked in a last-second desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer to steal it.

·         03/12/2011 – Big Ten Tournament vs. (#1) Ohio State (68-61).  This was the third time that Michigan played Ohio State this season, and it looked a lot like the other two games, including the final outcome.

·         03/20/2011 – NCAA Tournament vs. (#3) Duke (73-71).  The one that got away.  Michigan kept hanging around, and had a chance to win (with a 3-pointer) or tie the game at the buzzer, but alas…

Bad Losses – Unfortunately, there were more than a couple “bad losses” this season:

·         11/27/2010 – Legends Classic vs. UTEP (65-56).  There was no shame in losing the game the previous day to (#9) Syracuse, but this was one that UM should have won.  They were a much better team than UTEP, but they lost their poise and panicked, and that cost them the game.

·         12/28/2010 – Home vs. (#12) Purdue (80-57).  This was UM’s Big Ten opener, at 2:00 on a Tuesday afternoon.  Odd time, odd game.  It was one of UM’s worst losses, and it started a 1-6 slide to start the Big Ten season.  There’s no shame in losing to a Top-15 team, even at home, but Purdue crushed Michigan in this one.  Once again, the youngsters panicked at the wrong time, and Purdue took advantage of it.

·         01/15/2011 – At Indiana (80-61).  As bad as the Purdue loss was, this one was MUCH worse.  At the time, Indiana was winless (0-4) in the Big Ten, and Michigan had just played the #3 and #2 teams in the nation to a standstill.  This may sound like a broken record, but the big problem again was poise; Indiana put together a minor run, and the young players panicked and started throwing up hasty 3-pointers.  A couple misses, a few more baskets by IU, and the minor run is a full-blown rout.  Sigh.

·         01/18/2011 – At Northwestern (74-60).  Another road game against a lower-division Big Ten team, another panic, another rout.

·         01/22/2011 – Home vs. (#15) Minnesota (69-64).  It’s hard to remember that Minnesota was ranked in the Top 25 for much of the 1^st half of the Big Ten season, since they collapsed so completely and spectacularly in the 2^nd half of the Big Ten season.  In hindsight, Michigan should have won this one, but at the time, it was just the 6^th loss in a 6-game losing streak.  This was the low point of the season.  Fortunately, the next game was the big win at MSU (see “Good Wins”, above).

Final Grades

Here are the final grades for each player:

True Freshmen

Colton Christian: C+

Colton played in a lot of games (27), but he didn’t play a lot of minutes (126), and he didn’t score much (4 points on 2-for-11 shooting).  He did get some rebounds (36), and he played some good defense.  He’s still looking for his place on the team.

Tim Hardaway, Jr.: A-

Tim was the 2^nd leading scorer on the team (13.9 pts/game).  His shooting numbers were very good (42.0% and 36.7%), he got some rebounds (133), and he had more assists (59) than turnovers (45).  He started the season with some pretty good games, but once the Big Ten season started, he really picked his game up.  He became a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten, and he single-handedly won a couple games.

Jon Horford: B-

Jon started off slow, but improved during the whole month of December.  Once the Big Ten season started, he kind of disappeared, due to a minor knee injury.  It’s a shame, because he was just starting to look much more comfortable out there.  He played in 29 games, but only for 196 minutes, total.  His scoring (2.0 pts/game) wasn’t very exciting, but his shooting percentage (47.8%) was very good.  He’s developing into a capable backup at center.

Evan Smotrycz: B

Evan was kind of inconsistent out there, with some good games and some bad games.  Basically, if he hit his first shot of the game (usually a 3-pointer), he had a good game.  If he missed his first attempt, he was likely to end up with 0 points that game.  He was a starter for the first 24 games of the season, until he was replaced by Stu Douglass.  His numbers dropped off when he switched to being a bench player.  His shooting percentages (40.1% and 38.1%) were very good, but his rebounding total (81) was kind of low for a player his size.

Redshirt Freshmen

Blake McLimans: C+

Blake has tons of potential, and he showed flashes of promise, but he never really broke through this season.  It was a big relief when he finally hit his first (and only) 3-pointer, after missing his first 13 attempts.  He ended the season 1-for-19 shooting 3-pointers.  Ouch.

Jordan Morgan: A-

After Darius Morris, Jordan was the biggest (pleasant) surprise of the season.  Even though he wasn’t as tall as many of the centers he was asked to guard, he used his strength and quickness to keep them in check.  He also did very well offensively.  He was the 3^rd leading scorer on the team (9.2 pts/game), and he had a great shooting percentage (62.7%).

Transfer Player (Sophomore)

Jordan Dumars: Incomplete.

Jordan didn’t play this season.  Even though he was eligible starting with the Bryant game, he was recovering from a minor knee injury he suffered earlier this season, and the coaching staff decided to redshirt him for the rest of the season.  Next year, he’ll still have sophomore eligibility (3 full years left).

Sophomores

Eso Akunne: C

Eso didn’t play much (16 games, 40 minutes), and he didn’t score much (7 points).

Josh Bartelstein: Incomplete

Josh only played in “mop up” action (11 games, 19 minutes), but he did score: a 3-pointer vs. Purdue.  He wrote a very interesting and informative blog on MgoBlue.com.

Darius Morris: A

Darius gets the only straight A, and he sure earned it.  He was the leading scorer (15.0 pts/game), the leader in assists (235 – a new school single-season record), and the leader in steals (36).  He shot good percentages (48.9% and 25.0%), and he even pulled down 139 rebounds.  He ran the offense well, had good court vision, and was excellent at bringing the ball upcourt against heavy pressure.  He’s the fastest player on the team, and he has amazing body control.

Corey Person: Incomplete

Corey is another player who only played in “garbage time” (5 games, 9 minutes).  He scored 1 point.

Matt Vogrich: B-

Matt came off the bench in all but one game this season, and he did a pretty good job.  He only hit double figures once (vs. Tennessee), and he had a few scoreless games, but he shot pretty well (42.9% and 38.7%), and he pulled down a few rebounds (56).

Juniors

Stu Douglass: B+

Stu started the season as “6^th man”, but he broke into the starting lineup for the home Northwestern game (02/09/2011), and he did a good job the rest of the season.  He was the 5^th leading scorer (7.1 pts/game) on the team, and he had good shooting percentages (40.8% and 35.8%).  He did a pretty good job running the point when Darius Morris wasn’t doing it.  Most importantly, he was a leader out there.

Zack Novak: A-

Zack was the 4^th leading scorer (8.9 pts/game) on the team, but he was the leading rebounder (203).  That’s amazing when you consider that he is really a shooting guard who is occasionally asked to play small forward.  He routinely guarded players 4-6 inches taller than he is, and he shut them down.  But the one thing about Zack that doesn’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet is his hustle.  He never stops hustling out there, and he never gives up.  He scraps and dives for loose balls, he chases down opposing players on breakaways, and he sets brutal picks.  He is a fierce competitor, and a true leader.

Darrick Ervin II: Incomplete.

Darrick is another “mop up time” player (3 games, 3 minutes).  He hasn’t taken a shot yet.

These are good grades, and the players earned them.

Awards

Most Valuable: Darius Morris

Most Improved: Darius Morris

Best Freshman: Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Best Defender: Zack Novak

Best Rebounder: Zack Novak

Best Hustler: Zack Novak

Looking Ahead

This section appears to be so easy to write: everyone’s back for next season, and Michigan is adding a couple fast, hot-shooting incoming freshmen guards.  What could go wrong?  Michigan should contend for the Big Ten title, and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, right?  It’s all good, right?

Not so fast.  While this season’s team was very successful, there’s a thin line between success and failure in college basketball.  I’m not the first person to point back to the 2009-2010 team, which looked so promising after the successes of the 2008-2009 team, but fell flat.  The 2009-2010 team did poorly because of poor team chemistry and lack of leadership.  It doesn’t look like leadership will be a problem next season, with Novak, Douglass, and Morris firmly in control, but team chemistry is another matter.  Will next year’s team be as hungry?  Will they feel a sense of entitlement?  Will the role players from this year want to be starters?  Will there be enough minutes to go around?  Will the incoming freshmen (along with Jordan Dumars) fit in?

I almost hate to mention it, but there’s one other factor that made this season’s team so successful: injuries, actually, the lack of them.  This team was incredibly lucky that none of the key players missed a single game due to injury.  In the last decade, there have been Michigan teams that were ravaged by serious injuries to key players.  Imagine this season without Darius Morris for 10 games, or without Jordan Morgan for 15 games.  They wouldn’t have even made it to the NIT if that had happened.  It won’t be any different next season.  Michigan isn’t adding a couple 7-footers to back up Morgan, or a couple experienced point guards to back up Morris.  If those guys go down, the team is hosed.

Enough “gloom and doom”.  Just keep in mind that just because this season’s team was successful and everyone is coming back, that doesn’t guarantee even greater success next season.  A lot of any future success will depend on team attitude, team chemistry, and avoiding injuries.

Did someone mention two fast, hot-shooting incoming freshmen guards?  Here they are:

Trey Burke – Point guard

6’1”, 170 pounds

Columbus, OH

Recently named Mr. Basketball for the state of Ohio.  He’s a good shooter, and a pretty good point guard.  Think of him as a slightly slower, slightly shorter version of Darius Morris, with a better outside shot.

Carlton Brundidge – Shooting guard

6’1”, 205 pounds

Southfield, MI

He’s a pretty good shooter, and he can play some point guard.  He’s more likely to drive to the basket than pull up and pop.

So, the future looks promising, but not guaranteed.  It’s been a fun season to write about, and it should be fun again next season.  Be sure to check back in the fall.

Go Blue!

Results

Here are the resultsfrom last week's games, in the NCAA Tournamentandthe National Invitation Tournament (NIT):

Wednesday 03/23/2011

NIT: (#4) Northwestern lost to (#2) Washington State, 69-66 (overtime)

Thursday 03/24/2011

NCAA (Southeast): (#4) Wisconsin lost to (#8) Butler, 61-54

Friday 03/25/2011

NCAA (East): (#1) Ohio State lost to (#4) Kentucky, 62-60

After a good first week in both tournaments, the Big Ten fell apart in the second week.

The Upcoming Week

The Big Ten is done for this year.  See you all next year.

Results

Here are the resultsfrom last week's games, in the NCAA Tournamentandthe National Invitation Tournament (NIT):

Wednesday 03/16/2011

NIT: (#4) Northwestern beat (#5) Milwaukee, 70-61

Thursday 03/17/2011

NCAA (West): (#10) Penn State lost to (#7) Temple, 66-64

NCAA (Southeast): (#4) Wisconsinbeat (#13) Belmont, 72-58

NCAA (Southeast): (#10) Michigan Statelost to (#7) UCLA, 78-76

Friday 03/18/2011

NCAA (West): (#8) Michigan beat (#9) Tennessee, 75-45

NCAA (East): (#1) Ohio State beat (#16) UT-San Antonio, 75-46

NCAA (Southwest): (#3) Purduebeat (#14) St. Peter’s, 65-43

NCAA (Southwest): (#9) Illinoisbeat (#8) UNLV, 73-62

Saturday 03/19/2011

NIT: (#4) Northwestern beat (#1) Boston College, 85-67

NCAA (Southeast): (#4) Wisconsin beat (#5) Kansas State, 70-65

Sunday 03/20/2011

NCAA (West): (#8) Michigan lost to (#1) Duke, 73-71

NCAA (East): (#1) Ohio State beat (#8) George Mason, 98-66

NCAA (Southwest): (#3) Purdue lost to (#11) Virginia Commonwealth, 94-76

NCAA (Southwest): (#9) Illinois lost to (#1) Kansas, 73-59

The Big Ten did pretty well in both tournaments this week, going 9-5 (2-0 in the NIT, and 7-5 in the Big Dance).

The only surprise this week was how thoroughly Purdue got whipped by a #11 seed (VCU) on Sunday.  None of the other results was a surprise.

The Upcoming Week

There are still 3 Big Ten teams left alive: 1 in the NIT, and 2in the NCAA Tournament.

In the NIT, Northwestern continues, playing on Wednesday (03/23/2011) against the winner of the (#3) Oklahoma State/(#2) Washington State game.  If they win that one, they’ll go to the NIT Final Four in Madison Square Garden, 3/29 and 3/31.

In the NCAA Tournament, there are still 2 Big Ten teams left alive:

Thursday 03/24/2011

NCAA (Southeast): (#4) Wisconsin vs. (#8) Butler

Friday 03/25/2011

NCAA (East): (#1) Ohio State vs. (#4) Kentucky

They got SO close.  The Michigan men’s basketball team almost upset the #1 seed in their regional in the NCAA Tournament(Duke), but they came up just a couple points short.  On Sunday (03/20/2011), Michigan lost to Duke 73-71, to end their season.  Still, they played hard, and they showed the world how good they could be.  They have nothing to be embarrassed about.  For a young, inexperienced team picked to finish 10^th in the Big Ten, they greatly exceeded expectations.  They finished in the top half of the Big Ten (tied for 4^th), they won their first game in the Big Ten Tournament(against Illinois), and they won their first game (2^nd round) in the NCAA Tournament, thumping Tennessee on Friday, 75-45.  They put themselves in position to upset Duke and move on to the Sweet Sixteen, but they just missed the game-tying shot in the last seconds.  It wasn’t a win, but it sure was a big Moral Victory.  I know, Michigan doesn’t believe in Moral Victories, but this was a unique circumstance.

The win and the loss this weekend leave Michigan with a final season record of 21-14 (9-9 in the Big Ten).  This is a huge improvement over last season’s record (15-17, 7-11).

The Tennessee game was a thing of beauty, especially the 2^nd half.  The 1^st half was a seesaw battle, with Michigan leading by 4 (33-29) at halftime.  The start of the 2^nd half was magical, with a 19-2 run in the first 6 minutes of the half.  That was all the lead they needed, and they just toyed with the Volunteers for the rest of the game.  The 30-point margin of victory was the largest ever by a #8 seed.

The Duke game was close for most of the game, although Duke led almost the whole way.  For most of the game, UM was 3-5 points down, hanging in there.  When Duke went up by 15 points (58-43) with 10:51 left in the game, it looked like the game was out of reach, but UM managed to get as close as 1 point (72-71) with 10 seconds left, but they couldn’t get the final shot to drop.

Stats, for the last time this season.  The way Michigan destroyed Tennessee, it’s not too surprising that the stats are lopsided in Michigan’s favor.  Michigan shot well (51.6% overall, 34.6% from 3-point range), and UT didn’t.  As an extra bonus, UM won the rebounding battle handily (36-26).  An odd tidbit: Michigan became the 1^st team to win an NCAA Tournament game without making a single free throw.  UM only got to the line once, and missed that one attempt.

The Dukestats are a lot closer.  Michigan actually shot better than Duke from the field, but got outscored from the free-throw line (18-10).  That was the difference in the game.  Duke out-rebounded UM (33-22), but had 4 more turnovers (11-7).  The game was lost at the free-throw line.

Individually, it was a great tournament for scoring balance.  Michigan had 5 players (Zack Novak– 14, Tim Hardaway, Jr.– 11, Stu Douglass– 11, Matt Vogrich– 11, and Jordan Morgan– 10) in double figures vs. Tennessee, and 5 players (Darius Morris– 16, Hardaway – 15, Evan Smotrycz– 13, Novak – 12, and Morgan – 10) in double figures vs. Duke.  That means that 3 players (Hardaway, Novak, and Morgan) hit double figures in both games.  It could have been 5 players, since Morris and Smotrycz came close to double figures (8 points) in the Tennessee game.  It was great to see so much bench scoring in both games.

Oh yeah, Novak had a double-double (14 points, 10 rebounds) in the Tennessee game, and Morris broke the Michigan single-season record for assists in the Duke game.

The Nothing But ‘Net Expectation-O-Meter (NBNEOM) finishes the season firmly pointing to “Greatly Exceeds Expectations”.

The season may be over, but Nothing But ‘Net will be back again next week for one last article: season wrap-up, final grades, and awards.

Go Blue!

The big news this week isn’t how the Michigan men’s basketball team did in the Big Ten Tournament, the big news is that Michigan is going to The Big Dance: the NCAA Tournament!  At the beginning of the season, hardly anyone (including me) gave them much chance of going to the NCAA Tournament.  The optimistic fans were hoping for a bid to the National Invitation Tournament (NIT), but even that didn’t look very likely:

·         The team was too young: no seniors, 2 juniors, and a bunch of sophomores and freshmen.

·         The team was too short: no players over 6’ 10”, and no true center.

·         The team had lost too much scoring from last year: Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims accounted for 54% of UM’s scoring.

·         The Big Ten was too tough: 7 of the 11 teams were ranked at some point during the season.

Well, Michigan overcame all those obstacles, and made it the Big Dance.  It is truly amazing (amaizing?).

Oh yeah, the Big Ten Tournament.  Well, it went OK, but not great.  Michigan was the #4 seed, which meant that they got to play the #5 seed (Illinois) on Friday, then play the #1 seed (Ohio State) on Saturday.  UM played a mediocre game for 32 minutes vs. Illinois, but they came back strong in the last 8 minutes and won the game, 60-55.  They actually played better vs. Ohio State, but they just didn’t have the weapons to beat the #1 team in the nation, and they lost 68-61.  The win and the loss left Michigan with an overall record of 20-13 (9-9 in the Big Ten), and put them in contention for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They scheduled a Selection Sunday Viewing Event in Crisler for Sunday night, and about 1500 fans showed up to see the good news.  I worked as an usher, and it was a lot of fun.

The Illinois game started out OK for the first 14 minutes, but it didn’t look very promising from that point on.  It was all tied up (19-19) with 6:00 left in the 1^st half, then Illinois went on a 15-4 run to finish the half.  That made it 34-23.  The start of the 2^nd half wasn’t much better, and Illinois stretched their lead to 12 points (51-39) with 8:34 left in the game.  That’s when UM woke up, and finished the game on a 21-4 run.

The OSU game was close for most of the 1^st half.  With 2:00 left in the half, it was tied up, 27-27, but UM let things slip away a little, and OSU led 31-27 at halftime.  The first 4 minutes of the 2^nd half were a disaster, with OSU scoring the first 7 points to open up an 11-point lead (38-27).  That was all they needed.  Even though Michigan fought back and got within 2 points (47-45) with 10 minutes left in the game, OSU quickly built the lead back up to 14 points (59-45) with a 12-0 run, and that was the game.

The stats tell the stories, as usual.  In the Illinoisgame, Michigan won with 2 things: 3-point shooting (11-for-24 = 45.8%) and free-throw shooting (9-for-11 = 81.8%).  While the free-throw shooting percentage is nice, the real story was that Michigan got 9 points from the line, while Illinois only got 2 points (on 2-for-3 shooting).  That’s the difference in the game right there.  The stats for the OSUgame show why Michigan lost: overall shooting (22-for-59 = 37.3%) and 3-point shooting (9-for-29 = 31.0%).  Michigan needed to shoot 3-pointers against OSU like they did vs. Illinois.

Individually, it was the Dynamic Duo again: Tim Hardaway, Jr.and Darius Morris.  They both scored in double figures in both games.  Morris had 17 and 16, and Hardaway had 16 and 15.  Zack Novakwas the only other UM player to hit double figures this week, with 14 points in the Illinois game.  He only had 6 points in the OSU game.  The other 2 starters (Jordan Morganand Stu Douglass) chipped in some points (Morgan had 4 and 6, and Douglass had 3 and 7), but they weren’t as productive as usual.

Bench scoring has been a problem a lot this season, and it wasn’t very good in these games.  Only Evan Smotrycz(6 points) scored off the bench in the Illinois game, and only Smotrycz (9 points) and Matt Vogrich(2 points) scored in the OSU game.

The Nothing But ‘Net Expectation-O-Meter (NBNEOM) has been reset to point to “Greatly Exceeds Expectations”.

On to the NCAA Tournament!  Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams this year, there are now 4 “play in” games early in the week, and these games are called Round 1.  So, Michigan opens play in Round 2 vs. Tennesseeon Friday (3/18, time TBA) in Charlotte, NC.  Tennessee was 19-14 (8-8 in the SEC), with quality wins over Villanova and Pittsburgh, and embarrassing losses to Oakland (who Michigan beat handily) and Charlotte.  Tennessee doesn’t have much more height than Michigan, but they do have 6 seniors on their team.  It should be an interesting matchup.  If Michigan can get past Tennessee, they’ll play the winner of the (#1) Duke vs. (#16) Hampton game, presumably Duke.  That would be a tough matchup, but Michigan has played very well against highly-ranked teams this season, even if they haven’t beaten any of them.

Go Blue!

Results

Here are the resultsfrom last week's games, in the Big Ten Tournament:

Thursday (03/10/2011) – First Round

Game #1: (#8) Northwestern beat (#9) Minnesota, 75-65

Game #2: (#7) Michigan State beat (#10) Iowa, 66-61

Game #3: (#6) Penn State beat (#11) Indiana, 61-55

Friday (03/11/2011) - Quarterfinals

Game #4: (#1) Ohio State beat (#8) Northwestern, 67-61 (overtime)

Game #5: (#4) Michigan beat (#5) Illinois, 60-55

Game #6: (#2) Purdue lost to (#7) Michigan State, 74-56

Game #7: (#3) Wisconsin lost to (#6) Penn State, 36-33

Saturday (03/12/2011) - Semifinals

Game #8: (#1) Ohio State beat (#4) Michigan, 68-61

Game #9: (#7) Michigan State lost to (#6) Penn State, 61-48

Sunday (03/13/2011) - Championship

Game #10: (#1) Ohio State beat (#6) Penn State, 71-60

There were a number of surprises in the tournament, all in the quarterfinal round:

·         Ohio State having to go to overtime to beat Northwestern.  OSU has had some shaky games lately.

·         Purdue losing to Michigan State.  Purdue had been one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten, then they lost to Iowa in their last regular season game, and to MSU in their first tournament game.

·         Wisconsin losing to Penn State.  Not just losing, but being held to 33 points.  Watching that game was like watching paint dry.  It was ugly.

There were no real surprises in the semifinals or the championship game.

The Upcoming Week

Out of the 11 teams in the Big Ten, 8 of them are going on to post-season play – 7 in the NCAA Tournament, and 1 in the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).  Here are all 11 teams, in alphabetical order:

Illinois (19-13):  #9 seed in the Southwest Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #8 seed, UNLV.

Indiana (12-20):  Sorry, no post-season play for you.

Iowa (11-20):  Sorry, no post-season play for you.

Michigan (20-13):  #8 seed in the West Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #9 seed, Tennessee.

Michigan State (19-14):  #10 seed in the Southeast Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #7 seed, UCLA.

Minnesota (17-14):  Sorry, no post-season play for you.  This is the only surprise; I expected Minnesota to get a bid to the NIT.

Northwestern (18-13):  #4 seed in the NIT, playing a #5 seed, Milwaukee.

Ohio State (32-2):  #1 seed in the East Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the winner of the “First Four” game between UT-San Antonio and Alabama State.

Penn State (19-14):  #10 seed in the West Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #7 seed, Temple.

Purdue (25-7):  #3 seed in the Southwest Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #14 seed, St. Peter’s.

Wisconsin (23-8):  #4 seed in the Southeast Regional of the NCAA Tournament, playing the #13 seed, Belmont.

 “State Of Michigan” Trophy 2010-2011 Update

Drew Montag

7 March 2011

Time for an update on the “State Of Michigan” Trophy for the 2010-2011 season:

At this point, the University of Michigan has a nearly insurmountable 12-point lead (25-13) over Michigan State University with just 6 regularly-scheduled contests left in the school year (1 in men’s tennis, 3 in baseball, and 2 in softball).  In order to salvage a tie, MSU must sweep the remaining 6 contests.  That doesn’t seem likely.  Michigan’s men's tennis team has beaten Michigan State in 9 of the last 10 years, including the last 7 years in a row.  The baseball games are a toss-up, but the Michigan softball team is ranked #8 in the nation, and is 22-0.  It seems really unlikely that they would lose 2 games to MSU.

There might be a couple additional contests between UM and MSU, besides the regularly-scheduled ones: the men’s basketball teams could meet in the Big Ten Tournament, the NCAA Tournament, or the NIT.  The men’s tennis, baseball, or softball teams could meet again in the Big Ten Tournaments or NCAA Tournaments in their sports.

Stayed tuned for further updates.

May the best University win.

Standings

Here are the final Big Ten standings, after Week #10 (the final week) of league play:

Some weeks, I have to think long and hard about a good title for my weekly article.  Not this week.  This week, I’ve got too many titles:

·         Everybody Loves Draymond (Fouling Out)

·         Dream On, Draymond

·         Happy Days Are Here Again

·         Taking “Little Brother” To The Woodshed

The Michigan men’s basketball team only played one game this week, but it was a big one, and they won it.  On Saturday (3/5), they beat their archrival, Michigan State, in Crisler Arena, 70-63.  This is a Big Dealä for several reasons:

·         Michigan swept MSU in the regular season, for the first time since the 1996-97 season.

·         This was Michigan’s final regular season game, and the win gives them a final regular season record of 19-12 (9-9 in the Big Ten).

·         Michigan finished tied for 4^th place in the Big Ten, which is a big improvement over their predicted finish: 10^th place.

·         Michigan locked up the #4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  Even though they ended up in a 4-way tie for 4^th place, they had the best head-to-head record against the other 3 teams.

·         Michigan finished the regular season with the same record in the Big Ten as Michigan State, and a better overall record (MSU is 17-13).

·         MSU is almost certainly knocked out of contention for a bid to the NCAA Tournament, after 13 years in a row of making the Big Dance.  Of course, they can still win the Big Ten Tournament, which would give them an automatic berth, but MSU does not look like a team poised for greatness.

·         It puts Michigan solidly “on the bubble” for an NCAA Tournament bid.  You’ve got to assume that the selection committee will take more than 3 teams from the Big Ten, and Michigan is the #4 team.

It was a wonderful game.  Michigan led the whole game, and controlled the tempo.  They built up a couple nice leads (14 points in the 1^st half: 33-19 with 2:25 left, and 13 points in the 2^nd half: 48-35 with 13:41 left), and they never let it get closer than 2 points (56-54 with 5:48 left).  They answered every MSU run, and played with poise.  They still had some trouble hitting clutch free throws, but they made enough to preserve the win.  It was great to see Michigan close out an important game with confidence.

It was a large (sell-out), loud crowd, and everyone had great fun when the #1 MSU thug player (Draymond Green) fouled out with 1:17 left in the game.  He also fouled out of the earlier game this season in East Lansing, and he made the same “who me?” face after all 10 of his fouls.  Just 20 seconds later, another MSU player (Delvon Roe) fouled out, and the MSU ringleader (Kalin Lucas) had to play soft defense for the last 5:05, since he had 4 fouls.  Lucas also had an intentional foul in the 1^st half, when he decked Tim Hardaway, Jr.with his elbow, and he threw the ball at Darius Morrisin the last seconds of the game.  Classy.

Before anyone gets too excited, I need to say the same things to the Michigan fans that I said to the MSU fans the last few years: all sports are cyclical.  Don’t get too excited.  It used to be that Michigan owned Michigan State in basketball, then things swung the other way.  They appear to be swinging back, but that can change very quickly.   Savor the wins, but don’t assume that just because Michigan swept MSU this season, the tide has turned.  Even if it has turned, it can turn back.  Maintain some perspective.

The statstell the story: Michigan shot almost 10% better than State (42.0% vs, 32.8%).  Once again, UM lost the rebounding battle (badly), 46-30, but Michigan has won many games under Coach Beilein while getting out-rebounded by double digits.  The other big stat was free throws: Michigan made more free throws (23) than MSU attempted (20).  The teams shot about the same percentage from the free-throw line (UM = 74.2%, MSU = 75.0%), but UM got 8 more points there.  That’s about the difference in the game.

Individually, it was a tale of two halves.  In the 1^st half, Evan Smotryczled the way, and almost hit double figures by halftime (9 points).  He ended up with 14 for the game.  In the 2^nd half, it was Hardaway: he had 0 points in the 1^st half, and 20 points in the 2^nd half.  Two other starters hit double figures: Morris had 13 points, and Jordan Morganhad 10.  Zack Novakalmost hit double figures (8 points), but the 5^th starter, Stu Douglass, had 0 points.  Still, that’s nice scoring balance, and it was great to get some bench points.  Besides Smotrycz’s 14 points, UM also got 3 points from Matt Vogrichand 2 points from Blake McLimans.  19 points from the bench is very impressive.

The Nothing But ‘Net Expectation-O-Meter (NBNEOM) continues to point to “Exceeds Expectations”.

So, now the regular season is over, and it’s on to the Big Ten Tournament.  This season, it’s in Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.  Michigan is the #4 seed, so they get a bye on Thursday, and start play on Friday (3/11) vs. the #5 seed, Illinois.  Michigan lost their only game vs. Illinois this year, but it was on the road, which is a lot different than a neutral site.  Illinois was 7-2 at home, but only 2-7 on the road.  If Michigan can beat Illinois, they get to play on Saturday vs. the winner of the game between the #1 seed (Ohio State) and the winner of the #8 (Northwestern) vs. #9  (Minnesota) game.  Presumably the winner of that game will be Ohio State.  If Michigan can get by Ohio State, who knows who will emerge from the other half of the bracketfor the championship game on Sunday.  It should be interesting.

Go Blue!

“Paw, Paw, look what Timmy and me caught!”

“Why, Darius, that’s a fine Gopher-fish!  Did you catch that right here in Crisler Cove?”

“No, Paw, we caught way out in Barn Bay, over yonder.”

“Well, that’s very impressive.  Most folks come out of the Barn with nothing.  But, say, why do you boys still look a little sad?”

“Well, Paw, you should have seen the one that got away!  We had a 50-inch Badger-fish all hooked and landed and in the boat.  I was about to use the club to smash his head in, when he suddenly leapt up and smacked us both in the face.  That made us both jump back, and the boat tipped over and he plum got away.”

“That’s a darn shame.  If you had brought that bad boy in, you would have gotten an invitation to the ‘Now Callin’ All Anglers’ (NCAA) Fishing Tournament for sure.  Now, you’ll just have to wait and see if the selection committee is impressed with your fine Gopher-fish.  Say, I’ve got an idea: why don’t you boys check out Crisler Cove for one of them big ugly Spartan-fish.  If you could catch one of them, you might impress the committee even more.”

“OK, Paw, we’re gonna go get him!  We want to go to The Big Splash!”

It was a bittersweet week in Wolverine-land this week.  On the one hand, the Michigan men’s basketball team got a big road win (70-63) on Saturday in Minnesota, but, oh, the one that got away: on Wednesday, UM had Wisconsin all but beat, then watched an unheralded freshman Badger guard bank in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to steal the win (53-52).  It was the definition of “heartbreak”.  The most frustrating part was that Darius Morrishad a chance to turn a 2-point lead into a 4-point lead with a one-and-one free throw situation with 31 seconds left.  He missed the front end, and that set up the final shot for Wisconsin.

So, now it all comes down to the final regular season game.  If Michigan can beat Michigan State in Crisler Arena on Saturday (3/5), they still stand a (slim) chance of getting to the Big Dance.  At this point, Michigan’s record is 18-12 (8-9 in the Big Ten).  A win in the final game will give them 19 wins, and bring them to 0.500 in league play, which looks like enough, but there are a few catches:

·         One of UM’s wins was against a lower-division team (Concordia), so Michigan would only have 18 wins against Division-1 teams.

·         Michigan doesn’t really have one of those “signature wins” that the NCAA Selection Committee looks for.

·         There are lots of other worthy teams out there competing for the limited number of non-automatic-qualifier (at large) bids.  At this point, it looks like the Big East might send 11 (yes, eleven!) teams to the tournament, which would use up a lot of at large bids.

Ironically, one of the teams that Michigan is competing against for a spot in the tournament is Michigan State.  While a win by Michigan won’t necessarily get UM into the tournament, a loss by Michigan State will almost certainly keep MSU out of the tournament, ending their 13-year streak of appearances.  So, both teams will have a lot to play for.

Yay, it’s stats time!  I love stats, and you should too.  They often tell the real story behind the games.  First, let’s talk about “the one that got away”, Wisconsin.  It was a 1-point game, so the stats should be really close, and they are.  Michigan shot very well, and they actually shot better than Wisconsin.  Michigan shot 48.8% (20-for-41) overall, and an awesome 53.8% (7-for-13) from 3-point range.  Unfortunately, the shot very poorly (5-for-11 = 45.5%) from the free throw line, including the big miss by Morris at the end.  That’s what cost them the game.  That, and the 11-5 turnover margin against them.  It wasn’t the slight (32-30) rebounding edge for Wisconsin, or any of the other stats.  The stats from the Minnesotagame are a bit more fun.  Michigan shot well again (45.5% and 42.9%), and they shot better than Minnesota.  They also made their free throws, finally: 8-for-9 = 88.9%.  Sure, they got out-rebounded (36-28), as usual, but they cut the turnovers back down to 5.

Individually, Tim Hardaway, Jr.was the only player to hit double figures in both games (16 and 22).  More importantly, he’s been hitting his 3-pointers: 4-for-7 vs. Wisconsin, and 5-for-8 vs. Minnesota.  Since 3-pointers are such a big part of the Michigan offense, those are crucial stats.  The Wisconsin game was slow and low-scoring, and only one other Michigan player scored in double figures: Jordan Morgan, with 12 points.  The Minnesota game was a little faster and higher-scoring, and two other Wolverines hit double figures: Morris (17) and Stu Douglass(12).  The 5^th starter, Zack Novak, followed up his 0-for-10 performance in the Iowa game on 2/19 with an 0-for-4 performance vs. Wisconsin.  He finally broke his string of 14 straight misses with a 3-pointer early in the Minnesota game, and he even hit another one late in the game, for 6 points.  It’s good to get his 3-pointers back.

Bench scoring has been an issue lately, and it wasn’t much better this week.  Michigan got 8 points (3 from Matt Vogrichand 5 from Evan Smotrycz) in the Wisconsin game, and 7 points (3 from Vogrich and 4 from Smotrycz).  This needs to improve.

The Nothing But ‘Net Expectation-O-Meter (NBNEOM) continues to point to “Exceeds Expectations”.

Last call for Michigan basketball!  The last home game is this Saturday (3/5, 2:00 p.m.) vs. the evil Spartans of Michigan State.  The students are on Spring Break, but the game is officially sold out, so it should be a rockin’ good time.  The game is on national TV (CBS), so if you can't be there, tune in.

Go Blue!

Standings

Here are the current Big Ten standings, after Week #9 of league play:

Results

Here are the resultsfrom last week's games:

Tuesday (02/22/2011)

Illinois lost at Ohio State, 89-70

Michigan State won at Minnesota, 53-48

Wednesday (02/23/2011)

Wisconsin won at Michigan, 53-52

Purdue won at Indiana, 72-61

Thursday (02/24/2011)

Penn State won at Northwestern, 66-52

Saturday (02/26/2011)

Michigan won at Minnesota, 70-63

Iowa lost at Illinois, 81-68

Sunday (02/27/2011)

Purdue won at Michigan State, 67-47

Indiana lost at Ohio State, 82-61

Northwestern lost at Wisconsin, 78-63

The home teams did terrible this week, going 4-6.  This week, it was NOT that tough to win on the road in the Big Ten.

There were a couple surprises this week:

·         Wisconsin had to bank in a desperation 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Michigan on Wednesday.  It wasn’t surprising that Wisconsin won, but it was surprising how close they came to losing.

·         Purdue crushed Michigan State in East Lansing on Sunday.  It wasn’t surprising that Purdue beat MSU, but it was surprising that they beat them by 20 points in Breslin.  How the Spartans have fallen.  It’s hard to believe that they started the season ranked #2 in the nation.

The Upcoming Week

Here are the games scheduledfor the upcoming week (Week #10), the final week of the regular season:

Tuesday (03/01/2011)

Illinois at Purdue

Ohio State at Penn State

Wednesday (03/02/2011)

Iowa at Michigan State

Minnesota at Northwestern

Thursday (03/03/2011)

Wisconsin at Indiana

Saturday (03/05/2011)

Indiana at Illinois

Michigan State at Michigan

Purdue at Iowa

Sunday (03/06/2011)

Penn State at Minnesota

Wisconsin at Ohio State

There’s only one big game this week:

·         Wisconsin at Ohio State on Sunday.  This is Purdue’s only hope to tie Ohio State for the regular season Big Ten title.

Full Schedule

Here’s the entire Big Ten schedule, with the teams in alphabetical order.  I’ll include this table every week, with the wins and losses filled in:

Drew Montag

24 February 2011

It’s back, bigger and better than ever: the “State Of Michigan” Trophy!  Get all the information on one of the most heated rivalries in all of college sports: the University of Michigan vs. Michigan State University.  Not just the “marquee” sports, but all 17 men’s and women’s sports with head-to-head competition.  First, some history:

Back in September 2003, Pontiac started 'The Pontiac Challenge', to track the head-to-head competition between the University of Michigan and Michigan State University for the whole school year. They divided the school year up into 3 sessions (Fall, Winter, and Spring), and awarded a trophy to the winner of each session, with the current winner keeping it in the case of a tie.

Not too surprisingly, UM won (or tied) every session for all 3 years that Pontiac sponsored the Challenge (2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006). Also not too surprisingly, Pontiac lost interest when the Challenge got too one-sided. So, after the 2005-2006 season, they dropped it, but I picked it up. However, I thought their setup with the 3 sessions and a goofy scoring system could be improved, so I changed it to a single session (the whole school year), with 2 points for each win, and 1 point for each tie.

From 2006-2010, I used Microsoft Excel spreadsheets to track the results. I used the built-in spreadsheet-to-HTML converter in Excel to generate the Web pages, which I then had to upload to my Web site. It was clumsy, to say the least, so I wrote a PHP script, with some Javascript, to use MySQL to generate the Web pages 'on demand'. I also entered all the old data for the seasons going back to 2000-2001, which is as far back as I can find reliable information.

A quick look at the 'Season: Summary/Sport: All' page will show that UM has won the State of Michigan Trophy every year for the last 11 years except once (2009-2010). Even then, it came down to the last contest.

May the best University win!

Standings

Here are the current Big Ten standings, after Week #8 of league play:

Results

Here are the resultsfrom last week's games:

Tuesday (02/15/2011)

Michigan State lost at Ohio State, 71-61

Wednesday (02/16/2011)

Wisconsin lost at Purdue, 70-62

Michigan lost at Illinois, 54-52

Thursday (02/17/2011)

Minnesota lost at Penn State, 66-63

Iowa lost at Northwestern, 73-70

Saturday (02/19/2011)

Michigan won at Iowa, 75-72 (overtime)

Northwestern won at Indiana, 70-64

Illinois lost at Michigan State, 61-57

Sunday (02/20/2011)

Ohio State lost at Purdue, 76-63

Penn State lost at Wisconsin, 76-66

The home teams did very well this week, going 8-2.

There were a couple surprises this week:

·         Minnesota losing at Penn State on Thursday.  Once again, it is really tough to win on the road in the Big Ten.

·         Ohio State losing at Purdue on Sunday.  A couple weeks ago, we were wondering if OSU would go undefeated for the season.  Now we’re wondering if they can win the Big Ten title.

The Upcoming Week

Here are the games scheduledfor the upcoming week (Week #9):

Tuesday (02/22/2011)

Illinois at Ohio State

Michigan State at Minnesota

Wednesday (02/23/2011)

Wisconsin at Michigan

Purdue at Indiana

Thursday (02/24/2011)

Penn State at Northwestern

Saturday (02/26/2011)

Michigan at Minnesota

Iowa at Illinois

Sunday (02/27/2011)

Purdue at Michigan State

Indiana at Ohio State

Northwestern at Wisconsin

There’s only one big game this week:

·         Purdue at Michigan State on Sunday.  Michigan State is battling to save their season.  Purdue is trying to catch Ohio State for 1^st place.

Full Schedule

Here’s the entire Big Ten schedule, with the teams in alphabetical order.  I’ll include this table every week, with the wins and losses filled in:

The Michigan men’s basketball team split a pair of road games this week, losing at Illinois on Wednesday 54-52, then beating Iowa 75-72 in overtime on Saturday.  Given how hard it is to win anywhere on the road in the Big Ten, the Iowa win is a big deal.  The loss at Illinois was just sad, since Michigan had a chance to win it at the end.  Still, the loss and the win give Michigan an overall record of 17-11 (7-8 in the Big Ten), which is more than enough to ensure a bid to the NIT.  If Michigan can scratch out another 2 wins in the last 3 games, they’ll stand a decent chance of getting to the Big Dance.

The Illinois game was so frustrating.  Michigan started strong, and led 11-5 at the 1^st media timeout.  Unfortunately, they started unraveling at that point, and trailed by 10 (32-22) at halftime.  They didn’t do much in the first 9 minutes of the 2^nd half, and they were still down 9 points (43-34) with 10:42 left in the game.  That’s when UM went on a 10-2 run, and closed within a point (45-44).  They hung around, never falling more than 4 points behind, but never getting the lead.  Finally, they got the ball for the last shot with 14 seconds left, down by 2 (54-52).  Evan Smotryczgot off a decent 3-pointer with 4 seconds left, but it missed.  Stu Douglassgot the rebound and fired up a wild 3-pointer at the buzzer that hit the front of the rim, bounced straight up, and almost went in, but “almost” isn’t good enough.  Still, it was a gutsy effort, even if it goes in the books as another “L”.

The Iowa game was remarkably similar.  This time, UM opened up a 14-4 lead just after the 1^st media timeout.  And, once again, they started unraveling at that point.  Iowa went on a 17-4 run, to lead 21-18.  Iowa pushed the lead as high as 10 (30-20), and led by 8 at halftime (32-24).  It could have been even worse: UM turned the ball over with 2 seconds left in the 1^st half, and an Iowa player hit a half-court 3-pointer at the buzzer.  However, the refs looked at the replay for 5 minutes, and (correctly) ruled that the ball didn’t leave his hands in time, so it was waved off.  Whew!

Iowa took the lead up to 10 again (37-27) early in the 2^nd half, before UM started a comeback.  With 10:35 left in the game, Michigan tied it up, 40-40, then opened up a small (55-49) lead with 6 minutes left.  Iowa tied it up (63-63) with 2 minutes left, and went ahead by 2 (65-63) in the final minute.  Jordan Morganhit 2 clutch free throws with 12 seconds left, and we went to overtime.

Michigan led for most of the overtime, but never by more than 4 points.  Tim Hardaway, Jr.made a pair of clutch free throws with 15 seconds left to push the lead up to 3 points (75-72), and Iowa missed a pair of 3-point attempts in the last 5 seconds.  Whew, again.

I know you want stats, so here you go.  Michigan shot very poorly in the Illinoisgame: 37.3% overall, and an amazing 11.1% (2-for-18) from 3-point range.  If they could have made even one more of their 3-pointers, they would have won the game.  As usual, UM lost the rebounding battle (38-32), but they had a lot less turnovers (12-5) than Illinois.  It was just lousy shooting that cost them the game. 

The stats for the Iowagame are a little better.  They shot much better (48.1% and 30%), but they still lost the rebounding battle (36-27).  They also had a lot more turnovers than usual (13), but less than Iowa (16).  This game was won with slightly better shooting than Iowa.

Individually, it was “Darius Morris/Tim Hardaway, Jr./Jordan Morgan” week.  All 3 of them hit double figures in both games, and they were the only Michigan players to hit double figures in either game.  Hardaway had the best week, with 10 and 30, but Morris (11 and 20) and Morgan (12 and 18) weren’t far behind.  The other 2 starters (Stu Douglassand Zack Novak) didn’t do much, scoring-wise.  Douglass had 5 and 3, with lousy shooting percentages: 2-for-11 (1-for-8) vs. Illinois, and 1-for-5 (1-for-4) vs. Iowa.  Novak did a little better vs. Illinois (7 points, on 3-for-7 [0-for-3] shooting), but only had 2 points vs. Iowa, with terrible shooting: 0-for-10 (0-for-6).  Douglass probably cost Michigan the Illinois game, and Novak almost cost Michigan the Iowa game.  The Wolverines need these 2 players to get back to their earlier form.  They also could use some bench scoring; they got 7 points (2 from Matt Vogrichand 5 from Smotrycz) in the Illinois game, and just 2 points (from Eso Akunne) in the Iowa game.  Smotrycz, a former starter, has almost disappeared.  It’s time for the bench players to contribute.

The now-famous Nothing But ‘Net Expectation-O-Meter (NBNEOM) needs to be reset to “Exceeds Expectations”.  At the beginning of the season, Michigan was picked for 10^th place in the Big Ten, with no postseason hopes.  At this point, UM is in 6^th place, has clinched a spot in the NIT, and stands a fair chance of getting to the Big Dance.

So, Michigan has 3 games left in the regular season, 2 of them at home (Wisconsin and Michigan State) and one on the road (at Minnesota).  Minnesota has been pretty tough at home this season, so that might be a little much to hope for, but the two home games are winnable.  This week, it’s Wisconsin in Crisler Arena on Wednesday (2/23, 6:30 p.m.) and at Minnesota on Saturday (2/26, 4:30 p.m. EST).  Michigan has to win one of these games to stand a chance at the NCAA Tournament.

Go Blue!

Standings

Here are the current Big Ten standings, after Week #7 of league play: