2/13/2006 – Week #15 – The Injury Bug Strikes Again

The Week In Review

This past week, the (#22) University of Michigan men's basketball team played two games, and they lost them both.  That's bad enough, but they looked terrible in both losses, and one of the losses was to lowly Purdue.  On Thursday (02/09/2006), they lost to (#17) Ohio State in Crisler Arena, 94-85, then on Saturday (02/11/2006), they lost at Purdue, 84-70.  Combined with last week's loss to Iowa on Saturday (02/04/2006), these 2 losses give Michigan a 3-game losing streak.  They also seriously damage their hopes of winning the Big Ten title, and even of making it to the NCAA Tournament.  The two losses also drop Michigan's record to 16-6, 6-5 in the Big Ten, and will certainly drop UM out of the polls, after only 2 weeks as a ranked team.  It was a lousy week.

The losses were a result of some key injuries that have occurred in the last few weeks.  More about that below.

Game Statistics

Let's look at the shooting statistics from the Ohio State game:

There's your whole game story right there: Ohio State hit 7 more 3-pointers than Michigan did.  They also shot a better percentage, except at the free throw line, which helps a lot.  Take another look at that 3-point shooting for OSU: 15-for-24 (62.5%).  That's amazing.  I haven't seen anything like it since Loyola Marymount destroyed Michigan in the 1990 NCAA Tournament.  At one point, starting midway through the 1^st half and continuing into the 2^nd half, OSU hit a blazing 13-out-of-14 3-pointers.  It was incredible, and depressing, to watch.  Some of them were fairly easy shots, when a Michigan defender didn't rotate over quickly enough to cover an open man, but some of them were very tough shots, with a Michigan defender right in the OSU player's face.  The Buckeyes were just on fire, and there wasn't much Michigan could do about it.  Unfortunately, the same thing happened last Saturday at Iowa. 

Against OSU, Michigan had two choices: stop OSU inside, and hope they shot a normal percentage from outside, or stop them outside, and give up a lot of points inside.  It's hard to cover both effectively.  So, Michigan decided to gamble that Ohio State wouldn't be able to hit 62.5% from 3-point range for the game, and 75% for the 1^st half.  And, it worked, at least at first.  Michigan opened a 21-8 lead early in the 1^st half, and they consistently shut down OSU underneath the whole 1^st half.  However, after missing their first three 3-point attempts, OSU just couldn't miss from outside the rest of the half, and the UM strategy didn't work out.

Now, let's look at the non-shooting statistics from the Ohio State game:

When was the last time you saw a team get out-rebounded by 15 boards and win a game handily?  When you're shooting 62.5% from 3-point range, you don't need rebounds, you just need a few turnovers by your opponents.  That's what OSU got.

Moving on to the Purdue game, let's look at the shooting statistics:

Purdue was hot from the floor, and Michigan was not.  Some of it was Michigan's defense, but some of it was a 3^rd straight team that was just on fire.  Those things happen, and they're happening to Michigan right now.

Finally, let's look at the non-shooting statistics from the Purdue game:

These stats are pretty close, except for Rebounds and Steals, which almost evened out.  The important stat was shooting percentage.

Individual Statistics

Things are starting to get grim again.  First, it was Lester Abram who got injured, in the game at Minnesota on 01/21/2006, and he's only played for 2 minutes since then (6 games).  Next, it was Jerret Smith who got injured.  He suffered a mild concussion in the game at Penn State on 02/01/2006, then he came down with mononucleosis, and hasn't played in the last 3 games.  Finally (hopefully it's "finally"), Dion Harris sprained his ankle badly in the Ohio State game, and didn't make the trip to Purdue.  This was the first game that Harris has missed in his Michigan career (86 games).  The injury situation this year is starting to look a lot like last year, when injuries (and a suspension) just destroyed the season.  Smith is out for at least a couple weeks, but Abram and Harris could be back any time.

With all the injuries, Coach Amaker had to come up with two different starting lineups.  In the both games, he started Ron Coleman in place of Abram, and in the Purdue game, he started Jevohn Shepherd in place of Harris.  The other 3 regular starters (Graham Brown, Daniel Horton, and Courtney Sims) were the same.  Here's how they did:

As a group, the starters had a mediocre week.  There are no good percentages here, except maybe field goal shooting against OSU and free throw shooting against Purdue.

The theme as far as individual performances this week was: consistency, and lack thereof.

Only one starter hit double figures in both games, and that was Coleman.  He had a then-season-high 15 points against OSU, and followed it up with a career-high 18 points against Purdue.  He shot a respectable percentage in both games, and had 4 big 3-pointers against Purdue.  He was the only starter who was consistently good this week.

Brown was consistent this week, but it wasn't a good consistency.  While Michigan doesn't count on him for much scoring, he does need to chip in more than one for the week.

Horton was also consistent, but also not in a good way.  He was OK in the OSU game, with 15 points, and three 3-pointers, but he shot pretty poorly (5-for-17 = 29.4%).  That actually looks pretty good compared to the 8 points (and zero 3-pointers) that he got against Purdue, on 2-for-10 (20%) shooting.  He also sustained a deep thigh bruise in the Purdue game, and sat out most of the 2^nd half.  He should be able to play in the next game, but he'll be slowed down a little.  Just what Michigan needs at this point: another injury.

Harris only played in one game, so he didn't have a chance to be consistent.  He played pretty well against OSU, until he got injured.  Once he was helped off the floor, the rest of the team just seemed to give up, and OSU cruised to the win.

Similarly, Shepherd only played in one game as a starter this week, so he didn't have much of a chance to be consistent.  However, he played very well in his first start ever, scoring a career-high 9 points, and pulling down a career-high 6 rebounds.

Finally, there's Mr. Inconsistency himself: Courtney Sims.  For most of the Big Ten season, he was the Invisible Man out there, getting 2 points here and 3 points there.  Then, he busted out with 18 points against Wisconsin, and 12 points against Iowa.  He was awesome against Ohio State, scoring at will, and getting 26 points.  He even had 16 rebounds against Ohio State.  Then, he disappeared again at Purdue, making one basket.  He did have 5 more points on free throws, but it was nothing compared to the game he had 2 days earlier.

Here's how the bench players did this week:

The bench helped out a little this week, but it wasn't enough.  Once again, Hunter contributed most of the bench scoring.  In fact, he was the only other player on the team to have double figures in both games.  He even hit three 3-pointers in the Purdue game.  Usually, Petway chips in more points than he did this week, but he's been playing hurt.  He took a knee to his chest, and he's wearing a flak vest under his uniform, which is slowing him down.  The other bench players didn't really contribute much.

The Big Picture

Just three games ago, Michigan was on the top of the basketball world.  They had just beaten two Top-25 teams, and they were in 1^st place in the Big Ten.  They looked like a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and the only real worry was how soon Abram would be back in action from his sprained ankle.  Then came the lopsided loss at Iowa on 02/04/2006, followed by the home loss to Ohio State and the loss on the road at Purdue.  Now, it looks like the wheels are coming off.

So, which team is it?  Is it the one that had won 5 games in a row going into the Iowa game, or the one that has lost 3 in a row, and given up 94, 94, and 84 points in that span?  Well, both.  Get Abram and Harris and Smith back out there, at 100%, and Michigan would stand a good chance of winning 3 out of their last 5 games, and a couple games in the Big Ten Tournament, giving them 20+ wins.  But, without all 3 of those players, their chances go way down.  Take a look at the updated schedule and results: